98 Forest Ave

Jamestown, NY 14701

$174,900C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,519 sqft · Built 1907 · MultiFamily · Pending · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,439/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax + insurance: −$347
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$512
• Net cashflow: $663/mo
• Annual: $7,952/yr
• Cap rate: 10.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.24%
• DSCR: 1.72
• 1% rule: 1.39%
• Cash to close: $48,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $663 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#470 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities D, crime F.
• Jamestown City School District (town): math 33% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #553 of 590 in NY (top 94%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 313 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 9 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 8645% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 16.6% in Jamestown — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $2,439/mo this rent would consume 59% of the median local household income ($50k/yr) (locally 1838% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.