307 W 5th St

Pana, IL 62557

$49,900B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,340 sqft · Built 1925 · SingleFamily · Active · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax + insurance: −$89
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $448/mo
• Annual: $5,379/yr
• Cap rate: 17.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.50%
• DSCR: 2.71
• 1% rule: 2.03%
• Cash to close: $13,972

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $448 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#599 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Pana CUSD 8 (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #360 of 620 in IL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Christian County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Christian County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $50k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 6.4% in Pana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.