8611 Green Cay

West Palm Beach, FL 33411

$400,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,681 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax + insurance: −$875
• HOA: −$360
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-905/mo
• Annual: $-10,866/yr
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.70%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $112,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-905 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (23.2% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $240k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Benoist Farms Elementary School (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,030 of 2,144 statewide, top 95%, 421 students, 80% FRL); Jeaga Middle School (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #532 of 571 statewide, top 94%, 941 students, 78% FRL); Palm Beach Lakes High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,688 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 574 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $400k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.