8611 Green Cay · West Palm Beach, FL 33411

$400,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,681 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2001 5,495 sqft lot Est $519k · 23% under $360/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

IMMACULATE 3BR/2BA CBS HOME 11 MONTHS NEW! QUALITY BUILT. GORGEOUS BOTH IN + OUT. LIGHT + BRIGHT. TONS OF UPGRADES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO UP- GRADED LARGER STYLE TILE W/INSERTS, DESIGNER BLINDS, TINTED WINDOWS. GATED COMMUNITY W/FABULOUS CLUBHOUSE PLUS TONS OF ACTIVITIES. CONVENIENT UPGRADED CARPET, TRAY CEILINGS. PRICED BELOW REPLACEMENT VALUE. MANNED LOCATION. NOTHING LEFT TO DO HERE...BUT MOVE IN. ABSOLUTELY IMMACULATE SELLER SAYS BRING ALL REASONABLE OFFERS.

Key facts

• 5,495 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; HOA fee $360 per month; Community amenities include clubhouse, pool, maintained community areas, gated access, and other amenities

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level (single story); First-floor entry; Faces south; Resale condition
• Construction: Built with block/CBS construction; Barrel roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-905 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $240k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#75 in FL, #1,255 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Benoist Farms Elementary School (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,030 of 2,144 statewide, top 95%, 421 students, 80% FRL); Jeaga Middle School (math 18% / reading 30%, grade F, #532 of 571 statewide, top 94%, 941 students, 78% FRL); Palm Beach Lakes High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,688 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Palm Beach average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 574 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $43k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $40k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$69k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $400k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,045 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.70%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $519,429
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8540 Pine Cay	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,681 (0%)	14mo	$520,000	$309	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $154,070
• Equity at exit: $360,352

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $487,773
• Equity at exit: $777,112

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33411

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 574
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$708 /mo · $8,495/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$360
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-905

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,218

Max offer price $240,045

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-679	-5% $-792	+0% $-905	+5% $-1,019	+10% $-1,132
Rent	-10% $-1,148	-5% $-1,027	+0% $-905	+5% $-784	+10% $-663
Rate	-1.0pp $-704	-0.5pp $-804	base $-905	+0.5pp $-1,009	+1.0pp $-1,115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2425 Pigeon Cay West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$3,540	$2.01	25d	1	0.22mi
2564 Sandy Cay West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$4,000	$2.03	25d	1	0.30mi
3910 Sandy Cay West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$2,140	$1.67	3d	1	0.36mi
2312 Curley Cut West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1972	$5,000	$2.54	25d	1	0.38mi
8410 Cargill Pt West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1421	$3,350	$2.36	25d	1	0.49mi
2146 Man of War West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1209	$3,000	$2.48	25d	1	0.52mi
2675 Clipper Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1984	$3,500	$1.76	8d	1	0.57mi
9041 Bay Harbour Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2018	$3,400	$1.68	17d	1	0.66mi
9041 Bay Harbour Cir West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	2018	$3,400	$1.68	4d	1	0.66mi
1990 Augustine Rd West Palm Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1019	$2,567	$2.52	0d	15	0.77mi
9315 Bridgeport Dr West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,600	$1.90	25d	1	0.91mi
2104 Tigris Dr Unit 2104 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1298	$2,990	$2.30	8d	1	0.93mi
9363 Bridgeport Dr West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,750	$2.01	5d	1	0.94mi
9391 Bridgeport Dr West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1508	$4,200	$2.79	25d	1	0.95mi
1561 Balfour Point Dr Unit B West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,250	$1.95	2d	1	1.06mi
1600 Windorah Way Unit C West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$2,290	$1.98	17d	1	1.11mi
2325 Sailfish Cove Dr West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	2008	$3,600	$1.79	25d	1	1.11mi
1566 Lake Crystal Dr West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	25d	1	1.11mi
1566 Lake Crystal Dr West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	19d	1	1.11mi
9766 Galleon Dr West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$2,240	$1.78	3d	1	1.20mi
9662 Sandpiper Ln West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1961	$3,200	$1.63	25d	1	1.30mi
9825 Baywinds Dr West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,110	$1.76	25d	2	1.33mi
9825 Baywinds Blvd Unit 1125 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1258	$1,925	$1.53	20d	1	1.33mi
9825 Baywinds Dr #1302 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1141	$2,295	$2.01	20d	1	1.33mi
9905 Baywinds Dr West Palm Beach, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1036	$2,250	$2.17	5d	2	1.35mi
9905 Baywinds Dr West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1141	$2,400	$2.10	15d	2	1.35mi
9901 Baywinds Dr #3202 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,500	$1.91	25d	1	1.38mi
9901 Baywinds Dr #3202 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,200	$0.92	15d	1	1.38mi
7130 Okeechobee Blvd West Palm Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$2,853	$2.63	0d	8	1.39mi
9857 Baywinds Dr #9210 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1141	$2,600	$2.28	11d	1	1.39mi
9857 Baywinds Dr #9210 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1141	$2,395	$2.10	8d	1	1.39mi
9873 Baywinds Dr #5212 West Palm Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,450	$1.87	25d	1	1.44mi
125 Lake Nancy Dr #241 West Palm Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1193	$1,900	$1.59	11d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $360 · $4,320/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-02
   status Active
3. 2026-04-24
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-03-06
   historical
5. 2025-08-19
   listed $400,000
6. 2002-05-02
   soldstatus $170,000
7. 2002-04-30
   soldstatus $170,000 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   IMMACULATE 3BR/2BA CBS HOME 11 MONTHS NEW! QUALITY BUILT. GORGEOUS BOTH IN + OUT. LIGHT + BRIGHT. TONS OF UPGRADES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO UP- GRADED LARGER STYLE TILE W/INSERTS, DESIGNER BLINDS, TINTED WINDOWS. GATED COMMUNITY W/FABULOUS CLUBHOUSE PLUS TONS OF ACTIVITIES. CONVENIENT UPGRADED CARPET, TRAY CEILINGS. PRICED BELOW REPLACEMENT VALUE. MANNED LOCATION. NOTHING LEFT TO DO HERE...BUT MOVE IN. ABSOLUTELY IMMACULATE SELLER SAYS BRING ALL REASONABLE OFFERS.

8. 2002-04-15
   historical 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   IMMACULATE 3BR/2BA CBS HOME 11 MONTHS NEW! QUALITY BUILT. GORGEOUS BOTH IN + OUT. LIGHT + BRIGHT. TONS OF UPGRADES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO UP- GRADED LARGER STYLE TILE W/INSERTS, DESIGNER BLINDS, TINTED WINDOWS. GATED COMMUNITY W/FABULOUS CLUBHOUSE PLUS TONS OF ACTIVITIES. CONVENIENT UPGRADED CARPET, TRAY CEILINGS. PRICED BELOW REPLACEMENT VALUE. MANNED LOCATION. NOTHING LEFT TO DO HERE...BUT MOVE IN. ABSOLUTELY IMMACULATE SELLER SAYS BRING ALL REASONABLE OFFERS.

9. 2002-01-31
   listed $179,900 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   IMMACULATE 3BR/2BA CBS HOME 11 MONTHS NEW! QUALITY BUILT. GORGEOUS BOTH IN + OUT. LIGHT + BRIGHT. TONS OF UPGRADES INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO UP- GRADED LARGER STYLE TILE W/INSERTS, DESIGNER BLINDS, TINTED WINDOWS. GATED COMMUNITY W/FABULOUS CLUBHOUSE PLUS TONS OF ACTIVITIES. CONVENIENT UPGRADED CARPET, TRAY CEILINGS. PRICED BELOW REPLACEMENT VALUE. MANNED LOCATION. NOTHING LEFT TO DO HERE...BUT MOVE IN. ABSOLUTELY IMMACULATE SELLER SAYS BRING ALL REASONABLE OFFERS.

10. 2002-01-28
    historical
11. 2001-10-15
    listed $185,000
12. 1998-07-16
    soldstatus $2,660,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,495 · $708/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,495 · $708/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$8,495
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,949
• − Management: −$2,949
• − HOA: −$4,320
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$17,893
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,294
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,571/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — West Palm Beach

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #75
• US rank: #1255

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Palm Beach, FL
• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 222,012
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 76,863
• Household income: $92,591
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 6% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.04%
• Current HPI: 903.78
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-85.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2026-05-02 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-06 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $400,000 Beaches MLS
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2002-04-30 Sold (MLS) $170,000 Beaches MLS
• 2002-04-15 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2002-01-31 Listed $179,900 Beaches MLS
• 2002-01-28 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2001-10-15 Listed $185,000 Beaches MLS
• 1998-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $2,660,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,495 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.