17002 Makanda Dr

Houston, TX 77433

$299,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,048 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Pending · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,798/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax + insurance: −$1,020
• HOA: −$294
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $-672/mo
• Annual: $-8,063/yr
• Cap rate: 3.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.68%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $83,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-672 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (33.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (6.4% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $199k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mcgown El (1,103 students, 11% FRL); Smith Middle (math 79% / reading 78%, grade A+, #19 of 1,662 statewide, top 1%, 2,057 students, 14% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 8% FRL vs 43% district-wide (35 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+30 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cypress-Fairbanks ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?