3617 Dahlia Ln

Middle River, MD 21220

$36,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 301 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,056/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$189
• Tax + insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$1,133
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $243/mo
• Annual: $2,910/yr
• Cap rate: 14.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.87%
• DSCR: 2.28
• 1% rule: 5.71%
• Cash to close: $10,080

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $36k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $36k).
• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($32k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $32k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $249 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 55% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $36k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.1% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?