96896 Mcgirts Creek Loop

Yulee, FL 32097

$439,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Built 2024 · Land · Pending · 136 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,234/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$356
• HOA: −$71
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-969/mo
• Annual: $-11,630/yr
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.44%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $123,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-969 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (49.2% below list).
• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.