96896 Mcgirts Creek Loop · Yulee, FL 32097

$439,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Land · 136 Days on market

Built 2024 0.27 ac lot $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY HOME. .. !!! Our St. Martin - 1976s. f. , 3BR/2BA/3CG plan comes with a Full Equipped Deluxe Kitchen that features GE Stainless Steel self-cleaning glass top range, S/S microwave hood, built-in S/S dishwasher, disposal. In addition, we offer 42” recessed panel upper cabinets with crown, quartz kitchen countertops with full backsplash. Spacious custom baths, with Delta chrome faucets, mirrored medicine cabinets, traditional vanity lighting, elongated toilets in all baths. Screened rear patio. This home sits on a 0.27-acre lot.

Key facts

• Delta chrome faucets
• S/s microwave hood
• Custom baths

Tags

• FULL EQUIPPED DELUXE KITCHEN
• S/S MICROWAVE HOOD
• BUILT-IN S/S DISHWASHER
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• CUSTOM BATHS
• DELTA CHROME FAUCETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-969 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (38.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (49.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (49.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$76k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,378 (49.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 49% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.51% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.44%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 16.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $177,429
• Equity at exit: $396,297

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.63×
• Total profit: $570,190
• Equity at exit: $854,629

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32097

• Home prices YoY: 19.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 16.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,072/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-969

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,461

Max offer price $268,687

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
96043 Starlight Ln Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,099	$1.40	23d	1	1.06mi
96045 Tidal Bay Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,809	$1.46	23d	1	1.15mi
96095 Tidal Bay Ct Yulee, FL	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,100	$1.40	10d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   price $439,900
3. 2026-03-20
   price $444,900
4. 2026-03-12
   price $449,900
5. 2026-01-08
   price $459,900
6. 2025-12-08
   listed $474,900 Active
7. 2025-10-02
   status Active
8. 2025-10-02
   price $474,900
9. 2025-08-21
   status Pending
10. 2025-05-15
    listed $467,500 Active
11. 2024-10-25
    price $467,500
12. 2024-05-24
    price $518,500
13. 2024-05-06
    listed $558,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,072 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,651 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,579/yr (+$132/mo · 76.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 36% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,072
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,144
• − Management: −$2,144
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable loss: −$20,046
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,811
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,819/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Yulee

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11615

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Yulee, FL
• County: Nassau County · 67,729 people
• City population: 26,700
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,700
• Household income: $93,161
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 404.0

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.35%
• Current HPI: 301.9299
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-21.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — AINCAR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $439,900 AINCAR
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $444,900 AINCAR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $449,900 AINCAR
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $459,900 AINCAR
• 2025-12-08 Listed $474,900 AINCAR
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — AINCAR
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $474,900 AINCAR
• 2025-08-21 Pending — AINCAR
• 2025-05-15 Listed $467,500 AINCAR
• 2024-10-25 Price Changed $467,500 AINCAR
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $518,500 AINCAR
• 2024-05-06 Listed $558,500 AINCAR

Property tax history

+357.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,072 · +357.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.