5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,658 sqft ·
Built 1890
· Townhouse
· Pending
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,629/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$461
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$552
Net cashflow
$148/mo
Annual
$1,781/yr
Cap rate
6.93%
Cash-on-cash
2.27%
DSCR
1.10
1% rule
0.94%
Cash to close
$78,372
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (6.1% below list).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $263k (6.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 84/100 on livability (#100 in PA, #720 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-.
Norristown Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #466 of 539 in PA (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Norristown Area Hs (math 42% / reading 8%, grade F, #375 of 437 statewide, top 86%, 2,309 students, 83% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,936 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (530 in 5+ unit buildings).
Montgomery County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
4 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $210k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.2% in Norristown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,629/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 2725% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-79017H9ZX1V5W7
· Data 5 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29