22522 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Dr

Patton Village, TX 77357

$289,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Active · 129 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,170/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$212
• HOA: −$50
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-69/mo
• Annual: $-822/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $81,197

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-822/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (25.2% below list).
• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $217k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.