22522 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Dr · Patton Village, TX 77357

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,990 sqft · Land · 129 Days on market

Built 2025 6,641 sqft lot $146/sqft · at area comps Est $289k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this stunning new construction home at 22522 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 spacious bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms designed for functionality and modern style • 1,990 square feet of well-planned living area • Open-concept living space perfect for entertaining and daily life • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship and move-in ready convenience Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a quality design aesthetic • Close proximity to local parks, perfect for outdoor recreation and activities • Located in a community that balances a peaceful atmosphere with accessible amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a dedicated home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this move-in ready home delivers a comfortable environment that maximizes every square foot for contemporary living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 13134015

Key facts

• Soaking tub
• Bay window
• High sloped ceiling

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• HIGH SLOPED CEILING
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• BAY WINDOW
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SOAKING TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-69 ($-822/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $217k (25.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $217k (25.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $217,023 (25.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,609
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: 0.48%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,385
• Equity at exit: $43,238

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-79,009
• Equity at exit: $25,073

Cash invested: $81,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,170 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,097/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $-69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $277,886

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,498
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21811 Hickory Springs Ct New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,700	$1.01	24d	1	0.83mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $289,990 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $292,990 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,990 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $292,990 Active 123 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,990 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $292,990 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $292,990 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $292,990 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $292,990 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $292,990 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $292,990 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $297,990 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,990 Active 111 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $299,990 1403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1403 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 22522 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 spacious bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms designed for functionality and modern style • 1,990 square feet of well-planned living area • Open-concept living space perfect for entertaining and daily life • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship and move-in ready convenience Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a quality design aesthetic • Close proximity to local parks, perfect for outdoor recreation and activities • Located in a community that balances a peaceful atmosphere with accessible amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a dedicated home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this move-in ready home delivers a comfortable environment that maximizes every square foot for contemporary living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 13134015

18. 2026-05-18
    price $299,990 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,990 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

19. 2026-04-14
    price $301,990 1403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1403 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 22522 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 spacious bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms designed for functionality and modern style • 1,990 square feet of well-planned living area • Open-concept living space perfect for entertaining and daily life • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship and move-in ready convenience Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a quality design aesthetic • Close proximity to local parks, perfect for outdoor recreation and activities • Located in a community that balances a peaceful atmosphere with accessible amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a dedicated home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this move-in ready home delivers a comfortable environment that maximizes every square foot for contemporary living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 13134015

20. 2026-04-13
    price $301,990 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,990 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

21. 2026-04-09
    price $307,990 1403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1403 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 22522 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 spacious bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms designed for functionality and modern style • 1,990 square feet of well-planned living area • Open-concept living space perfect for entertaining and daily life • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship and move-in ready convenience Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a quality design aesthetic • Close proximity to local parks, perfect for outdoor recreation and activities • Located in a community that balances a peaceful atmosphere with accessible amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a dedicated home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this move-in ready home delivers a comfortable environment that maximizes every square foot for contemporary living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 13134015

22. 2026-04-07
    price $307,990 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,990 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

23. 2026-03-24
    price $304,990 1403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1403 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 22522 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 spacious bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms designed for functionality and modern style • 1,990 square feet of well-planned living area • Open-concept living space perfect for entertaining and daily life • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship and move-in ready convenience Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a quality design aesthetic • Close proximity to local parks, perfect for outdoor recreation and activities • Located in a community that balances a peaceful atmosphere with accessible amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a dedicated home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this move-in ready home delivers a comfortable environment that maximizes every square foot for contemporary living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 13134015

24. 2026-03-23
    price $304,990 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,990 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

25. 2026-02-10
    listed $310,990 Active 1403-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1403 chars)

    Discover this stunning new construction home at 22522 Pagoda Dogwood Branch Drive in New Caney, TX, featuring a layout that prioritizes natural light and effortless movement throughout the interior. Key Features: • 4 spacious bedrooms with owner's suite in its own private corner • 2 full bathrooms designed for functionality and modern style • 1,990 square feet of well-planned living area • Open-concept living space perfect for entertaining and daily life • Fresh construction showcasing quality craftsmanship and move-in ready convenience Neighborhood & Location Benefits: • Situated in a desirable New Caney neighborhood with a quality design aesthetic • Close proximity to local parks, perfect for outdoor recreation and activities • Located in a community that balances a peaceful atmosphere with accessible amenities The central living area serves as the heart of the home, fostering a connected environment where common rooms flow together naturally. The owner's suite in its own private corner ensures a quiet retreat, while the three additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, family, or a dedicated home office. With its functional floorplan and modern building standards, this move-in ready home delivers a comfortable environment that maximizes every square foot for contemporary living. Schedule your private tour today. MLS# 13134015

26. 2026-02-09
    listed $310,990 Active 778-char remark

    Show marketing remark (778 chars)

    READY NOW! This beautiful home is the Boone plan, with 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1,990 sq ft. It has a stunning open-concept layout, a warm and inviting interior, and a high, sloped ceiling, making it perfect for those who love entertaining. The spacious living areas, including the kitchen, dining, and family room, are great for gatherings of all sizes. The foyer leads to 3 additional bedrooms and bathrooms. The owner's suite features a bay window with ample space and natural lighting. The owner's bathroom is a luxurious space to enjoy and relax. It will have a walk-in shower, soaking tub, double sink, and an enclosed toilet room. The covered patio is perfect for enjoying your private backyard. This is a fantastic opportunity, so contact us today to schedule a viewing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,097 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,307 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,210/yr (+$351/mo · 383.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$1,097
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,083
• − Management: −$2,083
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,951
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,428
• After-tax cash flow: $606/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $299,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $301,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $301,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $307,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $307,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $304,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $304,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $310,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-09 Listed $310,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,097 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.