5 bd · 5.5 ba ·
3,774 sqft ·
Built 2026
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 167 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$4,307/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$4,195
Tax + insurance
−$1,333
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$904
Net cashflow
$-2,126/mo
Annual
$-25,509/yr
Cap rate
3.10%
Cash-on-cash
-11.39%
DSCR
0.49
1% rule
0.54%
Cash to close
$223,972
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $800k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-26k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $492k (38.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $431k (46.2% below list).
It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($704k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $431k (46.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#968 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Oak Point El (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,500 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 952 students, 49% FRL); Little Elm H S (math 28% / reading 49%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,514 students, 52% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1955 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 163d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $101k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 3.1% vs local median 2.2% in Lakewood Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-79EHPBAFAEFP19
· Data 5 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29