4827 81st St

Newport News, VA 23605

$259,903D-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Under Contract · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,967/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$319
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-129/mo
• Annual: $-1,546/yr
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $72,773

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (24.3% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $197k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Hampton City Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 131 in VA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barron Elementary (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 368 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 49% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 68 units permitted in Hampton city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hampton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $260k implies a 1832% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.