4827 81st St · Newport News, VA 23605

$259,903

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,153 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1961 7,405 sqft lot Est $258k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.7/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Outstanding HGTV special! Many upgrades and updates to this move in ready home! Home features a a covered front porch, living room, dining room area, NEW kitchen to include NEW stainless steel appliances. 4 bedrooms, plus updated full bath, all NEW flooring, NEW roof, NEW windows, NEW HVAC, and NEW siding that will provide years of comfort and savings!

Key facts

• New floors
• Hgtv new kitchen
• Cover front porch

Tags

• COVER FRONT PORCH
• HGTV NEW KITCHEN
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• UPGRADED BATH
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway spaces; Street parking
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Cottage / Ranch style; One story; One living level; Main floor laundry; Entry-level: 1st floor
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof; Crawlspace and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Partial backyard fence (back fenced); Wooded view; Porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator; Breakfast area
• Bedrooms: First-floor master bedroom; Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor; Master bedroom (1st floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced hot air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Scuttle access
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup (main floor); Dryer hookup (main floor); Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Hampton City Public School District (urban): math 60% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 131 in VA (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barron Elementary (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 368 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 49% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.9%/yr); 42 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 68 units permitted in Hampton city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hampton County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $260k implies a 1832% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,656 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,272
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4827 81st St	0.00mi	4/1.0	1,153 (0%)	1mo	$263,900	$229	99
1008 80th St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,121 (-3%)	2mo	$122,000	$109	83
5007 81st St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (-1%)	6mo	$269,900	$237	74
5111 81st St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (-8%)	4mo	$180,000	$169	61
1207 77th St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,036 (-10%)	3mo	$250,000	$241	57
1123 75th St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (-1)	983 (-15%)	2mo	$210,000	$214	53
233 Martha Lee Dr	0.42mi	4/1.0	981 (-15%)	4mo	$219,900	$224	52
225 Cellardoor Ct	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,303 (+13%)	4mo	$272,250	$209	47
5004 Arony St	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,250 (+8%)	4mo	$285,000	$228	46
214 Cellardoor Ct	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,308 (+13%)	4mo	$320,000	$245	45
8513 Orcutt Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,282 (+11%)	3mo	$259,900	$203	44
633 Brewer St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+13%)	2mo	$255,000	$196	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-39,970
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,766
• Equity at exit: $22,472

Cash invested: $72,773 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23605

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Rents YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,534/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,130

Max offer price $237,140

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $18	-5% $-55	+0% $-129	+5% $-202	+10% $-276
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-207	+0% $-129	+5% $-51	+10% $27
Rate	-1.0pp $2	-0.5pp $-63	base $-129	+0.5pp $-196	+1.0pp $-265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,976
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1112 74th St Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	928	$1,500	$1.62	22d	1	0.38mi
314 Martha Lee Dr Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1210	$2,200	$1.82	24d	1	0.53mi
5014 Hazelwood Rd Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	955	$1,900	$1.99	2d	1	0.65mi
321 Big Bethel Rd Hampton, VA	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,300	$1.64	13d	1	0.72mi
620 73rd St Newport News, VA	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,900	$1.58	3d	1	0.75mi
346 Sitka Ct Hampton, VA	3.0	1.5	1210	$1,675	$1.38	24d	1	0.80mi
604 Big Bethel Rd Hampton, VA	3.0	1.5	1139	$2,300	$2.02	44d	1	0.93mi
37 Pennwood Dr Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,795	$1.55	24d	1	0.94mi
606 Randolph Rd Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	989	$1,475	$1.49	44d	1	1.23mi
902 W Russell Ct Newport News, VA	3.0	1.0	984	$1,450	$1.47	45d	1	1.24mi
1587 Briarfield Rd Hampton, VA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	985	$1,495	$1.52	3d	9	1.42mi
7 W Lewis Rd Hampton, VA	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,425	$2.01	22d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Outstanding HGTV special! Many upgrades and updates to this move in ready home! Home features a a covered front porch, living room, dining room area, NEW kitchen to include NEW stainless steel appliances. 4 bedrooms, plus updated full bath, all NEW flooring, NEW roof, NEW windows, NEW HVAC, and NEW siding that will provide years of comfort and savings!

3. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Outstanding HGTV special! Many upgrades and updates to this move in ready home! Home features a a covered front porch, living room, dining room area, NEW kitchen to include NEW stainless steel appliances. 4 bedrooms, plus updated full bath, all NEW flooring, NEW roof, NEW windows, NEW HVAC, and NEW siding that will provide years of comfort and savings!

4. 2026-04-19
   listed $259,903 Active

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Outstanding HGTV special! Many upgrades and updates to this move in ready home! Home features a a covered front porch, living room, dining room area, NEW kitchen to include NEW stainless steel appliances. 4 bedrooms, plus updated full bath, all NEW flooring, NEW roof, NEW windows, NEW HVAC, and NEW siding that will provide years of comfort and savings!

5. 2026-04-19
   listed $259,900 Active 354-char remark

   Show marketing remark (354 chars)

   Outstanding HGTV special! Many upgrades and updates to this move in ready home! Home features a a covered front porch, living room, dining room area, NEW kitchen to include NEW stainless steel appliances. 4 bedrooms, plus updated full bath, all NEW flooring, NEW roof, NEW windows, NEW HVAC, and NEW siding that will provide years of comfort and savings!

6. 1966-09-01
   soldstatus $13,450
7. 1963-11-01
   soldstatus $13,300
8. 1961-08-01
   soldstatus $13,250

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,534 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,534 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,559
• − Property taxes: −$2,534
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$6,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $-75/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101800
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,089
• Composite: 55.19/100
• National rank: #1272
• State rank: #40 of 131 in VA

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton, VA
• County: Newport News City · 178,950 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 13,332
• Household income: $53,815
• Rent vs Own: 59.5% rent · 40.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1119.0

Population outlook (Hampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,055 people
• By 2030: 131,753 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 125,017 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 116,825 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 97,033 · -27.6%
• By 2100: 76,188 · -43.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 25% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Hampton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.9) · D 69.2% · R 29.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.0pp no change · 2008: 38.9pp · 2024: 39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.9 2020: D+42.2 2016: D+37.8 2012: D+45.4 2008: D+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.94%
• Current HPI: 305.0997
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.87%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+1861.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — REINMLS
• 2026-04-23 Pending — WMLS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $259,900 WMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $259,903 REINMLS
• 1966-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,450 Public Records
• 1963-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,300 Public Records
• 1961-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,250 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,534 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.