409 Fir St

Wellston, OK 74881

$89,900C

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1930 · SingleFamily · Active · 40 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $839/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax + insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $115/mo
• Annual: $1,375/yr
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.46%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $25,172

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#248 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Wellston (rural): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #59 of 270 in OK (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wellston Es (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 259 students, 0% FRL); Wellston Hs (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #48 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 129 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $90k implies a 542% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.1% in Wellston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.