409 Fir St · Wellston, OK 74881

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1930 6,159 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming home for sale featuring 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bathrooms, a storm shelter, and recent updates throughout, including new HVAC System, new paint, flooring, and fixtures—come see what this property has to offer!

Key facts

• Recent updates
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• STORM SHELTER
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• RECENT UPDATES
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW FIXTURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Wellston addition
• Financial info: Loan qualification: Yes
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Security: Storm shelter
• Utilities: Homestead exempt (homestead designated)
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Flat entry level
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Conventional foundation; Existing property
• Exterior features: Outbuildings; Infill lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central gas cooling
• Interior features: One living area; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $84k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.1% in Wellston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#248 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Wellston (rural): math 26% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #59 of 270 in OK (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wellston Es (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 259 students, 0% FRL); Wellston Hs (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #48 of 447 statewide, top 14%, 129 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Lincoln County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $90k implies a 542% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,947 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.46%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $44,544
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Ash St	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	760 (-1%)	10mo	$44,000	$58	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $51,043
• Equity at exit: $75,471

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $143,395
• Equity at exit: $157,222

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74881

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $839 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $476/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$176
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    listed $89,900 Active
16. 2026-01-31
    historical
17. 2025-09-05
    listed $99,000 Active
18. 2022-06-19
    historical
19. 2022-05-24
    status Pending
20. 2022-05-07
    price $49,000
21. 2022-04-21
    price $59,000
22. 2022-04-14
    listed $69,000 Active
23. 2022-02-16
    soldstatus $14,000 Sold
24. 2022-01-04
    status Pending
25. 2022-01-02
    listed $15,000 Active
26. 2012-03-09
    soldstatus $15,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $476 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $809 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$333/yr (+$28/mo · 70.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$476
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$806
• − Management: −$806
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable loss: −$115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$28
• After-tax cash flow: $1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wellston
• NCES district ID: 4032280
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,907
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7390
• State rank: #59 of 270 in OK

Livability — Wellston

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #248
• US rank: #16617

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellston, OK
• Population (ZIP): 5,273

Population outlook (Lincoln County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,104 people
• By 2030: 36,435 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 36,696 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 36,216 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 35,057 · -2.9%
• By 2100: 31,333 · -13.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lincoln

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.3) · D 17.5% · R 80.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.8pp · 2024: -63.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.3 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+60.1 2012: R+49.0 2008: R+49.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Current HPI: 308.8101
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+480.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $89,900 MLSOK
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2025-09-05 Listed $99,000 MLSOK
• 2022-06-19 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2022-05-24 Pending — MLSOK
• 2022-05-07 Price Changed $49,000 MLSOK
• 2022-04-21 Price Changed $59,000 MLSOK
• 2022-04-14 Listed $69,000 MLSOK
• 2022-02-16 Sold (MLS) $14,000 MLSOK
• 2022-01-04 Pending — MLSOK
• 2022-01-02 Listed $15,000 MLSOK
• 2012-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $476 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.