211 Sea Breeze Dr

Bacliff, TX 77518

$242,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,236 sqft · Built 2016 · SingleFamily · Active · 341 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax + insurance: −$670
• HOA: −$37
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-220/mo
• Annual: $-2,645/yr
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.73%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $67,760

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $242k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (8.1% below list).
• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,252 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,223/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 672% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?