211 Sea Breeze Dr · Bacliff, TX 77518

$242,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,236 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 341 Days on market

Built 2016 4,613 sqft lot $108/sqft · 12% below area Est $275k · 12% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

Key facts

• 4,613 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,252 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, schools F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,223/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 672% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($213k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,065 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.73%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,885
• List price: $242,000
• Delta: -11.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5107 Lagoon Ct	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,228 (-0%)	7mo	$349,000	$157	84
5111 Bay Ln	0.14mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,312 (+3%)	0mo	$279,000	$121	82
5239 Gulf Stream Ln	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,312 (+3%)	24mo	$320,000	$138	68
334 Sea Mist Ln	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,192 (-2%)	18mo	$325,000	$148	67
5015 Cove Ct	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,145 (-4%)	20mo	$290,000	$135	66
5038 Gulf Stream Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,064 (-8%)	6mo	$285,000	$138	66
330 Gulf Winds Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	2,108 (-6%)	15mo	$289,999	$138	60
5031 Gulf Stream Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,397 (+7%)	23mo	$325,000	$136	56
306 Edgewater Park Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,951 (-13%)	10mo	$279,000	$143	53
5022 Bay Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,954 (-13%)	12mo	$285,000	$146	51
307 Sea Mist Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,951 (-13%)	23mo	$290,000	$149	42
4715 4th St	0.63mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,990 (-11%)	12mo	$246,500	$124	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-53,032
• Equity at exit: $36,083

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-63,359
• Equity at exit: $20,924

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77518

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax from tax record: −$503 /mo · $6,037/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,502

Max offer price $203,065

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5223 Gulf Stream Ln Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$2,080	$1.17	10d	1	0.06mi
5139 Misty Ln Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,970	$1.10	10d	1	0.15mi
339 Sea Breeze Dr Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,985	$1.36	4d	1	0.21mi
2735 Broadway St Unit 1546437P San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,994	$2.75	12d	1	0.90mi
1118 Chase Park Dr Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.0	1854	$2,086	$1.13	5d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,000 Active 341 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,000 Active 340 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,000 Active 339 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,000 Active 338 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,000 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,000 Active 332 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,000 Active 331 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $242,000 Active 330 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $242,000 Active 327 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,000 Active 326 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,000 Active 325 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $242,000 Active 324 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $242,000 Active 323 DOM
14. 2026-02-03
    status Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

15. 2026-02-03
    price $242,000 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

16. 2026-01-05
    status Pending 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

17. 2025-08-17
    status Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

18. 2025-07-26
    status Pending 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

19. 2025-05-22
    price $257,000 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

20. 2025-05-22
    status Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

21. 2025-04-23
    status Pending 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

22. 2025-04-23
    listed $250,000 Active 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Investors Welcome. Reviewing All Offers. Four Bedroom 2.5 Bath. Upstairs living/game room. With a bit of TLC this beauty can be transformed.

23. 2016-12-30
    soldstatus Sold 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    New GreenEco Builders Home! 2-Story, 4 Bedrooms - Gameroom - 2.5 Baths Master Suite Up with Separate Tub & Shower & Dual Vanity, 42'' Kitchen Cabinets with Granite Countertop & Tile Backsplash, Tile Floors in WetAreas, Leaded Glass Mahogany Front Door & Covered Patio, The Douglas Plan, Elevation B w/ Stone

24. 2016-12-02
    status Pending, Continue to Show 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    New GreenEco Builders Home! 2-Story, 4 Bedrooms - Gameroom - 2.5 Baths Master Suite Up with Separate Tub & Shower & Dual Vanity, 42'' Kitchen Cabinets with Granite Countertop & Tile Backsplash, Tile Floors in WetAreas, Leaded Glass Mahogany Front Door & Covered Patio, The Douglas Plan, Elevation B w/ Stone

25. 2016-10-15
    listed $207,164 Active 334-char remark

    Show marketing remark (334 chars)

    New GreenEco Builders Home! 2-Story, 4 Bedrooms - Gameroom - 2.5 Baths Master Suite Up with Separate Tub & Shower & Dual Vanity, 42'' Kitchen Cabinets with Granite Countertop & Tile Backsplash, Tile Floors in WetAreas, Leaded Glass Mahogany Front Door & Covered Patio, The Douglas Plan, Elevation B w/ Stone

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,037 · $503/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,037 · $503/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,674
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$6,037
• − Insurance: −$2,008
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,134
• − Management: −$2,134
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$6,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,603
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,042/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bacliff

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1252
• US rank: #21864

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bacliff, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 9,541
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,541
• Household income: $51,458
• Rent vs Own: 38.2% rent · 61.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 672.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 43% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.15%
• Current HPI: 293.2677
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+16.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $242,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Price Changed $257,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2016-12-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-12-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-10-15 Listed $207,164 HARMLS

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,037 · -4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.