4504 Marilyn Ct

Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$155,900D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Built 1995 · Manufactured · Active · 24 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,808/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax + insurance: −$555
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $56/mo
• Annual: $669/yr
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $43,652

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($669/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.7% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exposed framing — Structural damage
• Major: Missing cabinets — Aesthetic and functional damage
• Major: Exposed flooring — Structural damage
• Major: Exposed walls — Structural damage
• Major: No visible roof — Structural damage
• Major: No siding — Structural damage