4504 Marilyn Ct · Keystone Heights, FL 32656

$155,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1995 Poor condition 5.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4504 Marilyn Court in Keystone Heights, Florida -- a private 5-acre high-and-dry property offering the perfect blend of country living and convenience. This versatile property features THREE RV hookups, making it ideal for guests, multi-generational living, seasonal visitors, or income-producing opportunities. With plenty of usable land, there is room for RVs, boats, trailers, animals, gardens, workshops, and more. Enjoy peaceful surroundings, open skies, and the freedom to create the lifestyle you want. Located in the heart of Keystone Heights, residents enjoy a charming small-town atmosphere, beautiful lakes, outdoor recreation, boating, fishing, and a strong sense of community

Key facts

• Three rv hookups
• Usable land
• Usable acreage

Tags

• 5 ACRE PROPERTY
• THREE RV HOOKUPS
• USABLE LAND
• USABLE ACREAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; Gated parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Mobile home; Property attached
• Exterior features: Approximately 5.01 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Residential use; Ice maker
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $56 ($669/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.6% in Keystone Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#109 in FL, #1,684 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 321 active listings in the ZIP; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,561 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $340,480
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4461 Bondarenko Rd	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,280 (-6%)	10mo	$319,000	$140	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-21,501
• Equity at exit: $23,245

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-13,299
• Equity at exit: $13,479

Cash invested: $43,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32656

• Home prices YoY: -7.4%
• Active inventory: 321
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$490 /mo · $5,882/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,738

Max offer price $155,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $144	-5% $100	+0% $56	+5% $12	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-87	-5% $-16	+0% $56	+5% $127	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $95	base $56	+0.5pp $15	+1.0pp $-26

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,975
• Closing costs: $4,677
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,900 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,900 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,900 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-27
    listed $155,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,882 · $490/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,882 · $490/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,733
• − Property taxes: −$5,882
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,736
• − Management: −$1,736
• − Depreciation: −$4,535
• Taxable loss: −$1,703
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$409
• After-tax cash flow: $1,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive structural repairs and updates to become habitable and marketable.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed framing — Structural damage
• Major Missing cabinets — Aesthetic and functional damage
• Major Exposed flooring — Structural damage
• Major Exposed walls — Structural damage
• Major No visible roof — Structural damage
• Major No siding — Structural damage
• Major No visible systems — Structural damage

Value-add opportunities

• Both Rebuild entire structure — Structural integrity and aesthetics
• Resale Replace appliances — Modern appliances improve appeal
• Resale Install new cabinets — Modern cabinets improve appeal
• Resale Install new flooring — Modern flooring improves appeal
• Resale Paint interior walls — Modern paint improves appeal
• Both Install new roof — Structural integrity and aesthetics
• Both Install new siding — Structural integrity and aesthetics
• Both Install new systems — Structural integrity and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed framing · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing cabinets · Aesthetic and functional damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed flooring · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed walls · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
No visible roof · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
No siding · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
No visible systems · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 7 items		$105,000–350,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Rebuild entire structure — Structural integrity and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace appliances — Modern appliances improve appeal ↑
• Resale Install new cabinets — Modern cabinets improve appeal ↑
• Resale Install new flooring — Modern flooring improves appeal ↑
• Resale Paint interior walls — Modern paint improves appeal ↑
• Both Install new roof — Structural integrity and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new siding — Structural integrity and aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new systems — Structural integrity and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Keystone Heights

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #1684

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,630

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.65%
• Current HPI: 344.7744
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $155,900 realMLS

Property tax history

+573.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,882 · +573.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.