523 W 9th St

Gibson City, IL 60936

$130,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1892 · SingleFamily · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,091/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$229
• Net cashflow: $-7/mo
• Annual: $-79/yr
• Cap rate: 6.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.22%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-79/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (0.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $109k (16.1% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $109k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#777 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gibson City-Melvin-Sibley CUSD 5 (town): math 26% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #242 of 620 in IL (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Ford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $130k implies a 86% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.