Toccata Plan

Midlothian, TX 76065

$386,490D+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,002 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 924 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,367/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,008
• Tax + insurance: −$638
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $14/mo
• Annual: $164/yr
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $107,226

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $386k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($164/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (12.9% below list).
• It's been on market 924 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $337k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL); Midlothian H S (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,994 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1153 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 924 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.