Toccata Plan · Midlothian, TX 76065

$386,490

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,002 sqft · SingleFamily · 923 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a spacious 4-bed, 3-bath home with a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a Main-Level Owner#8217;s Suite, adding ease to daily living. The flexible layout includes a handy flex room and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Personalize your space with options like a study, game room, morning room, and a customized Owner's Bath layout. This floorplan provides comfort and adaptability for your modern lifestyle.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 923 days

🏗️ New construction. The $386,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $382,950.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $386k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($164/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (0.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $337k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $337k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: T E Baxter El (math 49% / reading 48%, grade D, #950 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 600 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove Middle (math 57% / reading 56%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 992 students, 21% FRL); Midlothian H S (math 48% / reading 55%, grade D+, #478 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 1,994 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1135 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 923 days — a 12% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $336,732 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 923 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.15%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $382,950
• List price: $386,490
• Delta: 0.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2833 Redden Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,139 (+7%)	1mo	$374,999	$175	80
343 Dairy Way	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,121 (+6%)	2mo	$394,999	$186	76
2845 Holstein Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,966 (-2%)	1mo	$364,999	$186	72
130 Clinton Ln	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,964 (-2%)	0mo	$420,000	$214	61
1013 Short Line Blvd	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,107 (+5%)	5mo	$365,000	$173	61
3818 Downing Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (+2%)	1mo	$399,999	$195	54
3433 Charing Cross Rd	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,756 (-12%)	2mo	$340,000	$194	54
3457 Nightingale Ln	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,260 (+13%)	4mo	$470,000	$208	52
518 Royal Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,856 (-7%)	4mo	$349,900	$189	48
1125 Cardinal Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,259 (+13%)	0mo	$448,000	$198	46
3458 Oxford St	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,288 (+14%)	2mo	$365,000	$160	43
3629 Worthington Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (-8%)	5mo	$375,000	$204	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-56,600
• Equity at exit: $57,099

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-28,856
• Equity at exit: $33,110

Cash invested: $107,226 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1135
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,008
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$479 /mo · $5,744/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$707
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,350

Max offer price $382,950

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $146	+0% $14	+5% $-119	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-252	-5% $-119	+0% $14	+5% $147	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $207	-0.5pp $111	base $14	+0.5pp $-86	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,737
• Closing costs: $11,488
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Saint Charles Pl Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2400	$8,950	$3.73	45d	1	0.47mi
2 Saint Charles Pl Unit 1389216P Midlothian, TX	5.0	3.0	2389	$15,575	$6.52	26d	1	0.47mi
3829 Honey Grove Dr Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$3,200	$1.33	45d	1	0.79mi
4021 Alpine St Midlothian, TX	4.0	3.0	2311	$3,100	$1.34	1d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $386,490 Active 923 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $386,490 Active 920 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $386,490 Active 919 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $386,490 Active 917 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $386,490 Active 915 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $386,490 Active 911 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $386,490 Active 910 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $386,490 Active 909 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $386,490 Active 906 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $386,490 Active 905 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $386,490 Active 904 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $386,490 Active 903 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $386,490 Active 902 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    price $386,490 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Welcome to a spacious 4-bed, 3-bath home with a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a Main-Level Owner#8217;s Suite, adding ease to daily living. The flexible layout includes a handy flex room and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Personalize your space with options like a study, game room, morning room, and a customized Owner's Bath layout. This floorplan provides comfort and adaptability for your modern lifestyle.

15. 2023-12-11
    listed $384,990 Active 427-char remark

    Show marketing remark (427 chars)

    Welcome to a spacious 4-bed, 3-bath home with a 2-car garage. Enjoy the convenience of a Main-Level Owner#8217;s Suite, adding ease to daily living. The flexible layout includes a handy flex room and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Personalize your space with options like a study, game room, morning room, and a customized Owner's Bath layout. This floorplan provides comfort and adaptability for your modern lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,408
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,451
• − Property taxes: −$5,744
• − Insurance: −$1,915
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,233
• − Management: −$3,233
• − Depreciation: −$11,140
• Taxable loss: −$6,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,514
• After-tax cash flow: $1,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Midlothian, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC system — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, TX
• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $386,490 Zillow
• 2023-12-11 Listed $384,990 Zillow