602 Trailing Heart Rd

Roswell, NM 88201

$227,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,392 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,223/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax + insurance: −$210
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $356/mo
• Annual: $4,270/yr
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.72%
• DSCR: 1.30
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $63,560

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $356 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (2.1% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Roswell Independent Schools (town): math 11% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 29 in NM (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.