96 Woodchuck Pkwy

Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

$82,500D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,668/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax + insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$905
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-158/mo
• Annual: $-1,894/yr
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.20%
• DSCR: 0.64
• 1% rule: 2.02%
• Cash to close: $23,100

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $60k (27.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $60k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.
• Market conditions: 1086 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.2% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.