Is 96 Woodchuck Pkwy in Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.0% cap rate and $-158/mo modeled cash flow at a $82,500 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 96 Woodchuck Pkwy?

The modeled cap rate is 4.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,668/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 43.37

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +14.4/15.0
1% rule +10.0/10.0
Cash flow +6.0/30.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Schools +3.4/10.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +0.4/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$82,500

96 Woodchuck Pkwy · Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ 08759

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot $75/sqft · 15% below area Est $98k · 15% under $905/mo HOA · 54% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Owner says ''SELL'' - PRICE REDUCED AGAIN! Beautifully renovated, move in ready! 3 bed, 2 bath featuring NEW: CERAMIC TILE (in kitchen and baths), PERGO FLOORS (in all other rooms), SS KITCHEN APPLIANCES, WASHER & DRYER, TANKLESS WATER HEATER, TOILETS, BATH ENCLOSURES, FIXTURES, LIGHTING FIXTURES , BATH EXHAUST FANS, CEILING FANS, SLOP SINK, ELECTRIC FIREPLACE, MINI BLINDS, CURTAIN RODS and much, much more. The open concept kitchen, dining room and living room features an electric fireplace for those cool spring evenings. Shows like a model home. Renovated with great attention to detail. Quick closing possible!

Key facts

Ceramic tile
Pergo flooring
Electric fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-158 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $60k (27.7% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $82k).
Recommended offer: $60k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.2% in Pine Ridge at Crestwood — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 60/100 on livability (#481 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
Market conditions: 1086 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 95d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $570 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
8 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $70k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: HOA is 54% of rent.

Recommended offer $59,665 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 2.02% ✓
Cap rate: 4.00%
Cash-on-cash: -8.20%
DSCR: 0.64
GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $97,503
List price: $82,500
Delta: -5.13%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Badger Ct	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (+5%)	5mo	$85,000	$74	80
3 Arbor St	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,196 (+9%)	6mo	$55,000	$46	71
15A Alpine Rd #63	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,076 (-2%)	4mo	$205,000	$191	67
7 Amherst Rd Unit A	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,076 (-2%)	4mo	$225,000	$209	65
9A Ardsley Ave #64	0.52mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,076 (-2%)	0mo	$178,000	$165	65
5 Berkeley St Unit A	0.60mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,098 (-0%)	2mo	$189,900	$173	63
14C Amesbury Rd #64	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,076 (-2%)	3mo	$190,000	$177	60
301 Kenwood Ct	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,150 (+4%)	8mo	$125,000	$109	56
1104 Sycamore Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,243 (+13%)	5mo	$168,000	$135	55
144 B Sunset Rd #60	0.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,184 (+8%)	3mo	$242,000	$204	48
16B Amesbury Rd	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (-12%)	1mo	$195,000	$202	44
20 Amesbury Rd Unit B	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (-12%)	4mo	$168,000	$174	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.5%
Equity multiple: 0.01×
Total profit: $-22,838
Equity at exit: $12,301

10-year hold

IRR: -26.3%
Equity multiple: -0.32×
Total profit: $-30,467
Equity at exit: $7,133

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 28 active · 18 under contract
Months of supply: 8.8 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $166,500 ($141/sqft)
Median days on market: 55 d
This list price: 7% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -37.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08759

Active inventory: 1086
Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,668 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$433
Tax est. 1.5%: −$103 /mo · $1,238/yr
Insurance: −$34
HOA: −$905
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
Net cashflow: $-158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,867

Max offer price $59,665

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-101	-5% $-129	+0% $-158	+5% $-186	+10% $-215
Rent	-10% $-290	-5% $-224	+0% $-158	+5% $-92	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-116	-0.5pp $-137	base $-158	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-201

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $20,625
Closing costs: $2,475
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4 Autumn Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	94d	1	0.07mi
4 Grouse Ct Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1216	$1,700	$1.40	0d	1	0.07mi
24 Partridge Pl Manchester Township, NJ	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,780	$1.43	108d	1	0.08mi
— Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	106d	1	0.11mi
123 Woodchuck Pkwy Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,700	$1.49	65d	1	0.11mi
7 Teal Ct Whiting, NJ	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,600	$1.52	99d	1	0.12mi
88 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	68d	1	0.17mi
94 Beaver Ave Manchester Township, NJ	2.0	2.0	991	$1,600	$1.61	67d	1	0.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Association fee paid monthlyAssociation amenities include community room, common areas, landscaping; no poolAssociation fee covers trash, common area upkeep, lawn maintenance, and snow removal

Exterior

Parking: No garage
Utilities: Public sewer
Home design: Mobile homeFee simple ownership
Construction: Shingle roof
Exterior features: Insulated windows

Interior

Kitchen: Electric cookingStoveMicrowaveDishwasherRefrigerator
Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingOil above groundCentral air conditioning
Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)Window treatments, blinds/shadesTimer thermostatLight fixturesFireplace (1)
Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $905/mo · $10,860/yr

Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $82,500 Active 5 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $82,500 Active 4 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $82,500 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $82,500 Active 2 DOM
2026-09-19

pricedays on marketlisting id $82,500 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $92,500 Active 153 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $92,500 Active 152 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $92,500 Active 151 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $92,500 Active 150 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $92,500 Active 149 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $92,500 Active 148 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $92,500 Active 147 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $92,500 Active 146 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $92,500 Active 145 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $92,500 Active 143 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $92,500 Active 142 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $92,500 Active 141 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $92,500 Active 140 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $92,500 Active 137 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $92,500 Active 135 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $92,500 Active 134 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $92,500 Active 132 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $92,500 Active 130 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $92,500 Active 129 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $92,500 Active 128 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $92,500 Active 127 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $92,500 Active 126 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $92,500 Active 124 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $92,500 Active 123 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $92,500 Active 121 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $92,500 Active 120 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $92,500 Active 119 DOM
2026-07-13

pricedays on market $92,500 Active 118 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $96,526 Active 117 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $96,526 Active 116 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $96,526 Active 115 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $96,526 Active 113 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $96,526 Active 112 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $96,526 Active 111 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $96,526 Active 110 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $96,526 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $96,526 Active 108 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $96,526 Active 107 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $96,526 Active 106 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $96,526 Active 105 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $96,526 Active 104 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $96,526 Active 103 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $96,526 Active 102 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $96,526 Active 100 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $96,526 Active 98 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $20,010
− Mortgage interest: −$4,621
− Property taxes: −$1,238
− Insurance: −$412
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
− Management: −$1,601
− HOA: −$10,860
− Depreciation: −$2,400
Taxable loss: −$2,723

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$653
After-tax cash flow: $-1,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,500–$16,500 screening

This home is in excellent condition with recent renovations, including new flooring, appliances, and fixtures. It is move-in ready and shows like a model home.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Replace ceiling fans with modern models — Modern fans improve airflow and aesthetics ↑
Both Replace kitchen appliances with energy-efficient models — Energy-efficient appliances reduce utility costs and appeal to buyers ↑
Both Replace flooring in bathrooms with modern tiles — Modern tiles enhance the look and durability of bathrooms ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Whiting Elementary School F NJ #582/1,303 Nat'l #23,081/41,679 Middle Manchester Township Middle School F NJ #226/431 Nat'l #7,065/14,009 High Manchester Township High School F NJ #290/399 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Manchester Township School District
NCES district ID: 3409450
Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income: $38,905
Composite: 28.8/100
National rank: #6662
State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — Pine Ridge at Crestwood

Score: 60/100
State rank: #481
US rank: #18916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Pine Ridge at Crestwood, NJ
County: Ocean · 586,991 people
Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ
Population (ZIP): 34,290
Household income: $55,000
Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 586,991 people
By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
Current HPI: 274.4679
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Consumer Goods	3	$31B
#281 Kenvue Skillman $15.4B #289 Campbell Soup Camden $9.6B #320 Church & Dwight Ewing $6.1B
Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
#48 Johnson & Johnson New Brunswick $88.8B #65 Merck Rahway $64.2B
Technology	2	$21B
#216 Automatic Data Processing Roseland $19.8B #442 Commvault Systems Tinton Falls $0.9B
Insurance	2	$20B
#411 Arch Capital Group Pembroke $15.2B #459 Selective Insurance Group Branchville $4.9B
Healthcare	2	$19B
#310 Quest Diagnostics Secaucus $9.8B #400 Zoetis Parsippany $9.1B
Financial Services	1	$70B
#62 Prudential Financial Newark $70.4B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

2026-09-19 Listed $82,500 MOMLS
2026-08-17 Delisted — MOMLS
2026-07-12 Price Changed $92,500 MOMLS
2026-06-17 Price Changed $96,526 MOMLS
2026-05-16 Price Changed $99,526 MOMLS
2026-04-29 Price Changed $104,526 MOMLS
2026-04-13 Relisted — MOMLS
2026-04-13 Pending — MOMLS
2026-03-17 Listed $114,526 MOMLS
2025-05-27 Price Changed $115,000 MOMLS
2025-05-27 Listed $115 MOMLS
2024-02-29 Sold (MLS) $70,000 MOMLS
2024-01-24 Pending — MOMLS
2024-01-12 Listed $70,000 MOMLS
2023-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
2023-06-26 Listed $99,900 MOMLS
2023-06-26 Listed $99,900 BRIGHT MLS
2010-01-18 Listed $79,900 MOMLS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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