3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,152 sqft ·
Built 2024
· Manufactured
· Active
· 776 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,700/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$354
Tax + insurance
−$112
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$567
Net cashflow
$1,667/mo
Annual
$19,998/yr
Cap rate
35.92%
Cash-on-cash
105.81%
DSCR
5.71
1% rule
4.00%
Cash to close
$18,900
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $68k).
It's been on market 776 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $467 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,175 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: cost of living D+, housing D+, schools F.
Pine Bush Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #468 of 590 in NY (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
10 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 35.9% vs local median 3.6% in Bloomingburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 776 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: Exterior siding
— Some discoloration visible on exterior siding.
Minor: Interior walls
— Textured finish on interior walls may need touch-up or repainting.
Minor: Landscaping
— Small front yard could benefit from some landscaping improvements.
CashFlowRE · CFR-7B73TPEE295DEK
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29