6384 Osage Dr

Goose Creek Lake, MO 63036

$110,000D-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 570 sqft · Built 2022 · Other · Pending · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $803/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax + insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $-65/mo
• Annual: $-777/yr
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $30,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-777/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (27.0% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.