6384 Osage Dr · Goose Creek Lake, MO 63036

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 570 sqft · Other public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2022 9,844 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-Bedroom Cabin in Gated Lake Community – A Must See! Welcome to your perfect weekend getaway or cozy year-round retreat! This inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath cabin is nestled on a private lot within the sought-after Goose Creek community — a gated development offering 24-hour security and a peaceful, nature-filled setting. Tucked just off the beaten path, this property is conveniently located near public lake access, providing easy entry to the community’s beautiful 400-acre stocked lake — ideal for boating, fishing, swimming, water skiing, and jet skiing. Whether you're searching for a relaxing escape, an investment opportunity, or full-time lake living, this

Key facts

• 9,844 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 570 (assessor)
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage indicated
• HOA & community: Part of Goose Creek Lake Subdivision HOA; Annual HOA fee of $500; HOA amenities include barbecue, beach access, boating, gated entry, lake, picnic area, playground, pool, powered boats allowed, security, and playground; HOA fee covers maintenance of parking/roads, repairs, common area maintenance, pool maintenance, recreational facilities, security, snow removal, and trash

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Well water; Holding tank sewer; Electricity connected (Ameren)
• Home design: Cabin; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Private lot; 72 x 155 x 73 x 148 lot dimensions; Gravel road frontage; Private road access; Shed(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Space heater; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Electric range; Refrigerator; No basement; No laundry room
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-777/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (27.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $80k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.0% in Goose Creek Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• North St. Francois County R-I (town): math 29% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #214 of 324 in MO (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Co. Sr. High (math 25% / reading 56%, grade F, #240 of 521 statewide, top 46%, 873 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 134 units permitted in St. Francois County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $80,303 (27.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.52%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-822
• Equity at exit: $38,901

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $16,108
• Equity at exit: $52,756

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63036

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $803 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $413/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $98,569

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   price $110,000
3. 2026-02-24
   listed $120,000 Active
4. 2026-02-23
   historical $120,000
5. 2025-09-02
   price $145,000
6. 2025-08-25
   listed $165,000 Active
7. 2025-08-23
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $413 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$654/yr (+$54/mo · 158.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$413
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$771
• − Management: −$771
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$2,734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$656
• After-tax cash flow: $-120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North St. Francois County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2905430
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,156
• Composite: 29.77/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #214 of 324 in MO

Livability — Goose Creek Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goose Creek Lake, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,121

Population outlook (St. Francois County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,683 people
• By 2030: 69,574 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 70,665 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 70,708 · +2.9%
• By 2075: 67,917 · -1.1%
• By 2100: 56,563 · -17.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 9% Lithuanian 6% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Francois

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.8% · R 75.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -46.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+48.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.23%
• Current HPI: 60.8458
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Coming Soon $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Listed $165,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-23 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+144.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $413 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.