205 Watts St

Bay St. Louis, MS 39520

$269,900D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1950 · SingleFamily · Pending · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,105/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$226
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $22/mo
• Annual: $258/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($258/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (22.0% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $210k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bay St Louis Waveland School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #21 of 130 in MS (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Waveland Elementary School (425 students, 100% FRL); Bay Waveland Middle School (math 51% / reading 42%, grade D+, #38 of 179 statewide, top 21%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Bay High School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #43 of 197 statewide, top 24%, 491 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 622 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.8% in Bay St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.