205 Watts St · Bay St. Louis, MS 39520

$269,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1950 6,969 sqft lot Est $315k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Renovated Home in Bay St. Louis Beautifully renovated 3BR/3BA home in an up-and-coming Bay St. Louis neighborhood surrounded by new construction. Selling well below appraisal. Updated in 2024 with a new kitchen, modern appliances, new roof, HVAC system, and hot water heater. Located just minutes from the beach with golf cart access to downtown dining, shopping, and entertainment. Features include a single-car garage and a fully fenced private backyard. Situated in an X flood zone for added peace of mind. A perfect blend of historic charm and modern updates--schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Renovated home
• New kitchen
• Modern appliances

Tags

• RENOVATED HOME
• NEW KITCHEN
• MODERN APPLIANCES
• NEW ROOF
• HVAC SYSTEM
• HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Concrete and paved parking; Garage faces front; Parking lot area
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One story; Facing not specified
• Construction: Built (year per public records); Concrete and synthetic stucco construction; Slab foundation; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: City lot; Fenced yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: One-level home
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Private entrance
• Laundry & utility: Utilities connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $22 ($258/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.8% in Bay St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bay St Louis Waveland School District (suburban): math 51% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #21 of 130 in MS (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Waveland Elementary School (425 students, 100% FRL); Bay Waveland Middle School (math 51% / reading 42%, grade D+, #38 of 179 statewide, top 21%, 392 students, 100% FRL); Bay High School (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #43 of 197 statewide, top 24%, 491 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 74% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 622 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 248 units permitted in Hancock County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hancock County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,489 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.34%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $315,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
253 Sycamore St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,048 (-0%)	4mo	$445,000	$425	85
520 Bookter St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (+2%)	3mo	$219,900	$206	78
234 Washington St	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-1%)	9mo	$535,000	$514	69
104 Boudin Ln	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,149 (+9%)	1mo	$325,000	$283	69
298 Union St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+12%)	7mo	$324,300	$276	58
401 Third St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (+15%)	1mo	$229,000	$190	52
208 Sycamore St	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+15%)	8mo	$495,000	$411	48
311 Demontluzin Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (+6%)	8mo	$335,000	$300	42
115 Citizen St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,196 (+14%)	2mo	$380,000	$318	42
515 Spanish Acres Dr	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,178 (+12%)	8mo	$159,000	$135	36
544 Demontluzin Ave	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,198 (+14%)	2mo	$159,900	$133	34
321 Saint George St	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,204 (+15%)	6mo	$545,000	$453	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-42,471
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-35,648
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39520

• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,105 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,362/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,078

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $98	+0% $22	+5% $-55	+10% $-131
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-62	+0% $22	+5% $105	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $90	base $22	+0.5pp $-48	+1.0pp $-120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
216 Carre Ct Bay Saint Louis, MS	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,500	$1.69	15d	1	0.43mi
699 Dunbar Ave Bay Saint Louis, MS	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	23d	1	0.73mi
117 Demontluzin Ave Bay Saint Louis, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	13d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $269,900 Pending 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-12
   remarks 601-char remark
4. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $269,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $279,900 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-04-07
    listed $279,900 Active
13. 2025-05-08
    price $269,900
14. 2025-04-29
    price $274,900
15. 2025-04-23
    status Active
16. 2025-04-23
    price $279,900
17. 2025-04-07
    status Pending
18. 2025-04-07
    historical
19. 2025-04-01
    price $284,900
20. 2025-03-20
    price $289,900
21. 2025-03-04
    listed $299,900 Active
22. 2024-08-05
    listed $299,900 Active
23. 2024-08-05
    historical
24. 2024-06-14
    price $299,900
25. 2024-05-15
    price $319,900
26. 2024-04-22
    listed $329,900 Active
27. 2023-12-21
    soldstatus Closed
28. 2023-09-13
    listed $162,900 Active
29. 2022-09-09
    soldstatus Closed
30. 2022-08-27
    status Pending
31. 2022-08-25
    listed $129,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,362 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,132 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$770/yr (+$64/mo · 56.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$1,362
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,021
• − Management: −$2,021
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$4,465
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay St Louis Waveland School District
• NCES district ID: 2800570
• Math proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $38,774
• Composite: 39.27/100
• National rank: #3998
• State rank: #21 of 130 in MS

Livability — Bay St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay St. Louis, MS
• Population (ZIP): 15,471

Population outlook (Hancock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 52,161 people
• By 2030: 54,753 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 59,242 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 62,417 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 68,168 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 69,212 · +32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 11% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hancock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.7) · D 20.1% · R 78.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -58.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.7 2020: R+55.5 2016: R+59.4 2012: R+52.8 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.80%
• Current HPI: 227.2103
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+116.1% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $279,900 MLSU
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $269,900 MLSU
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $274,900 MLSU
• 2025-04-23 Relisted — MLSU
• 2025-04-23 Price Changed $279,900 MLSU
• 2025-04-07 Pending — MLSU
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $284,900 MLSU
• 2025-03-20 Price Changed $289,900 MLSU
• 2025-03-04 Listed $299,900 MLSU
• 2024-08-05 Listed $299,900 MLSU
• 2024-08-05 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2024-06-14 Price Changed $299,900 MLSU
• 2024-05-15 Price Changed $319,900 MLSU
• 2024-04-22 Listed $329,900 MLSU
• 2023-12-21 Sold (MLS) — NCMBR
• 2023-09-13 Listed $162,900 NCMBR
• 2022-09-09 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2022-08-27 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-08-25 Listed $129,500 MLSU

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,362 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.