10511 Kings River Dr

Rosharon, TX 77583

$315,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,261 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,913/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$1,043
• HOA: −$96
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-490/mo
• Annual: $-5,876/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-490 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (7.5% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?