10511 Kings River Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583

$315,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,261 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 6,098 sqft lot 2-car garage $139/sqft · at area comps Est $322k · at est. $96/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Stunning, fully updated home in the sought-after Sierra Vista community! Built in 2023, this spacious 4-bed, 2.5-bath home is over 2,200 sqft of modern living. Features include luxury vinyl plank flooring in main areas, fresh premium paint, and a beautifully upgraded kitchen with granite countertops, backsplash, and brand-new stainless steel appliances. Upstairs bedrooms provide comfort with new carpet, while enhanced landscaping adds great curb appeal. This move-in ready, turnkey home is being showcased with professional photos, drone footage, and a 4K Matterport 3D tour. Conveniently located near major highways, shopping, and dining—this one checks all the boxes!

Key facts

• Upgraded kitchen
• Curb appeal
• Updated home

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ENHANCED LANDSCAPING
• CURB APPEAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-490 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,497 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.66%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,845
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -2.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10513 Mount Tallac Ct	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,003 (-11%)	4mo	$339,900	$170	71
10914 Amador Peak Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-3%)	0mo	$374,485	$170	69
1225 Scarlet Mountain Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,468 (+9%)	5mo	$290,000	$118	66
1834 Temple Grove Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-3%)	6mo	$364,990	$166	64
10430 Sherwin Pass Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	1,924 (-15%)	4mo	$279,900	$145	63
1922 Temple Grove Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,203 (-3%)	6mo	$360,990	$164	60
10819 Amador Peak Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,099 (-7%)	3mo	$360,000	$172	56
10831 Bodie Hills Dr	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,598 (+15%)	2mo	$378,000	$145	55
4311 Eagle Pass Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,941 (-14%)	6mo	$354,990	$183	51
10514 Sutter Creek Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,941 (-14%)	3mo	$359,900	$185	50
10507 Sutter Creek Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,566 (+14%)	3mo	$489,900	$191	49
1906 Temple Grove Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,468 (+9%)	4mo	$386,550	$157	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-89,127
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -60.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-144,583
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 79 active · 29 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.3 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $353,990 ($164/sqft)
• Median days on market: 50 d
• This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -13.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1445
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$912 /mo · $10,945/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-490

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,533

Max offer price $228,497

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-311	-5% $-401	+0% $-490	+5% $-579	+10% $-668
Rent	-10% $-720	-5% $-605	+0% $-490	+5% $-375	+10% $-260
Rate	-1.0pp $-331	-0.5pp $-410	base $-490	+0.5pp $-571	+1.0pp $-654

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	93d	1	0.18mi
10607 Crescent Peak Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,775	$1.72	0d	1	0.19mi
10630 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,875	$1.48	52d	1	0.20mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	56d	1	0.26mi
10502 Moon Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1615	$2,725	$1.69	36d	1	0.27mi
10534 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,770	$1.54	0d	1	0.34mi
10602 Wildflower View Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1596	$2,850	$1.79	69d	1	0.34mi
1207 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	2070	$2,300	$1.11	35d	1	0.37mi
10714 Cliffs View Dr Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	93d	1	0.39mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	93d	1	0.47mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1770	$2,579	$1.46	0d	17	0.57mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	0d	8	0.93mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,875	$1.66	93d	7	0.93mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	93d	1	0.96mi
9439 Ruby Mist Dr Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2605	$2,276	$0.87	48d	1	1.00mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	93d	1	1.00mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	62d	1	1.03mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,836	$1.15	21d	1	1.27mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,121	$1.14	0d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by PMG ManagementAnnual association fee of $1,150 covering clubhouse and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySlab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick and vinyl siding exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms: 9x10 and 10x12Second-floor bedrooms: 10x12 and 12x10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 5 total roomsGame room on the second floor (15x10)

HOA detail $96/mo · $1,152/yr

• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $315,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $315,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $315,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $315,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   pricedays on market $315,000 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $325,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $325,000 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $325,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $325,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $325,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $325,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $325,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $325,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $325,000 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $325,000 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $325,000 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $325,000 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $325,000 Active 59 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $325,000 Active 58 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $325,000 Active 57 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $325,000 Active 56 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $325,000 Active 55 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $325,000 Active 54 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 52 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $325,000 Active 51 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    pricedays on market $325,000 Active 50 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $329,900 Active 49 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $329,900 Active 48 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $329,900 Active 47 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $329,900 Active 46 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $329,900 Active 45 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $329,900 Active 44 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $329,900 Active 43 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    status $329,900 Active 42 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    status $329,900 Pending 42 DOM
37. 2026-06-17
    days on market $329,900 Active 42 DOM
38. 2026-06-16
    days on market $329,900 Active 41 DOM
39. 2026-06-15
    price $329,900 Active 40 DOM
40. 2026-06-15
    days on market $339,900 Active 40 DOM
41. 2026-06-13
    days on market $339,900 Active 38 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $339,900 Active 37 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $339,900 Active 34 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $339,900 Active 33 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,900 Active 32 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $339,900 Active 29 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 28 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 27 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,900 Active 26 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,945 · $912/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,945 · $912/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$10,945
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,797
• − Management: −$2,797
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$11,114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,667
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This stunning, fully updated home in the Sierra Vista community is move-in ready and offers modern living with luxury vinyl plank flooring, fresh paint, and a beautifully upgraded kitchen. The enhanced landscaping and curb appeal make it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint enhances the home's appearance and can increase its value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can increase its value for both resale and rental. ↑

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by PMG ManagementAnnual association fee of $1,150 covering clubhouse and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySlab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2023Brick and vinyl siding exteriorComposition roof
• Exterior features: Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Bedrooms: First-floor bedrooms: 9x10 and 10x12Second-floor bedrooms: 10x12 and 12x10
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 5 total roomsGame room on the second floor (15x10)

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $329,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $339,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $343,900 HARMLS
• 2025-10-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-11 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-10 Listed for Rent $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Coming Soon — HARMLS

Property tax history

+87.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,945 · +30.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.