6515 Bramble Cove Ln

Fulshear, TX 77441

$395,000F

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,133 sqft · Built 2023 · Townhouse · Active · 156 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,735/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$1,077
• HOA: −$433
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-1,421/mo
• Annual: $-17,051/yr
• Cap rate: 1.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.42%
• DSCR: 0.31
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $395k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (44.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (30.8% below list).
• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (44.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: James E Randolph El (math 79% / reading 73%, grade A, #70 of 4,322 statewide, top 2%, 1,078 students, 8% FRL); Seven Lakes J H (math 84% / reading 80%, grade A+, #7 of 1,662 statewide, top 0%, 1,630 students, 20% FRL); Jordan H S (math 63% / reading 89%, grade A-, #72 of 1,632 statewide, top 5%, 2,745 students, 17% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 78% at this address vs 62% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Katy ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1928 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 3.5% in Fulshear — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?