2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
920 sqft ·
Built 1960
· Other
· Active
· 236 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$806/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$551
Tax + insurance
−$94
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$169
Net cashflow
$-8/mo
Annual
$-92/yr
Cap rate
6.21%
Cash-on-cash
-0.31%
DSCR
0.99
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$29,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $105k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8 ($-92/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (1.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (23.2% below list).
It's been on market 236 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $81k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#221 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, employment D.
Dexter R-XI (town): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #120 of 324 in MO (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Southwest Elem. (473 students, 55% FRL); T. S. Hill Middle (math 44% / reading 36%, grade F, #185 of 391 statewide, top 48%, 443 students, 48% FRL); Dexter High (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #155 of 521 statewide, top 32%, 587 students, 44% FRL).
Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 17 units permitted in Stoddard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Stoddard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $75k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.7% in Dexter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 236 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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