2056 W Hwy 154 #14

Ballard, CA 93460

$329,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1977 · Manufactured · Pending · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,186/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax + insurance: −$548
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$879
• Net cashflow: $1,033/mo
• Annual: $12,396/yr
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $92,120

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $329k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $329k).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,005 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• College Elementary (town): math 50% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #234 of 1,400 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Santa Ynez Elementary (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 172 students, 54% FRL); Santa Ynez Valley Union High (847 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the College Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.