2056 W Hwy 154 #14 · Ballard, CA 93460

$329,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 121 Days on market

Built 1977 Est $319k · at est. ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +6.1/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated manufactured home with stunning views. This light-filled property features a completely remodeled kitchen that truly shines, along with new flooring throughout and all new dual-pane windows. Both bathrooms have been beautifully updated, including a brand-new shower in the primary bath. The home has been thoughtfully improved with new plumbing, electrical, skirting, and professional re-leveling, plus stiffened walls for added stability. A new back door enhances both function and style, and a new septic system provides peace of mind for the next owner. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced yard with raised garden beds, two mature crape myrtle trees, and a striking, oversized sago

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New shower
• Dual-pane windows

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW FLOORING
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW SHOWER
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease $466.56

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; 48-foot length; Age-restricted community; Pets allowed
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built by Skyline/Hillcrest
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Covered patio; Tool shed; Rural setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven/range; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Reverse osmosis system; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Wall/window cooling units; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Laundry inside
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $329k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,005 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A-; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• College Elementary (town): math 50% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #234 of 1,400 in CA (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $92k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $289,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2056 W Hwy 154 #14	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,000 (0%)	1mo	$319,000	$319	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $12,545
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $95,901
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93460

• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$411 /mo · $4,935/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$879
• Net cashflow: $1,033

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,878

Max offer price $329,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,260	-5% $1,147	+0% $1,033	+5% $919	+10% $806
Rent	-10% $702	-5% $868	+0% $1,033	+5% $1,198	+10% $1,364
Rate	-1.0pp $1,199	-0.5pp $1,117	base $1,033	+0.5pp $948	+1.0pp $861

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-05-13
   price $329,000
3. 2026-01-06
   listed $349,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$4,935
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,018
• − Management: −$4,018
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable income: $7,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,827
• After-tax cash flow: $10,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0609330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,496
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #2919
• State rank: #234 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Ballard

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1005
• US rank: #24868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Santa Barbara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,679 people
• By 2030: 505,323 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 545,783 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 584,263 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 682,586 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 723,188 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Barbara

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.7) · D 61.8% · R 35.1% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.8pp toward D · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 26.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.7 2020: D+32.1 2016: D+28.2 2012: D+17.1 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -250.90%
• Current HPI: 322.2953
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — NSBCRMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $329,000 NSBCRMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $349,000 NSBCRMLS