2715 Big Sandy River Rd

Fort Gay, WV 25514

$160,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 164 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,275/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $45/mo
• Annual: $539/yr
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($539/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (20.3% below list).
• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#302 in WV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wayne County Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #25 of 55 in WV (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fort Gay Pre K-8 (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #361 of 377 statewide, top 96%, 551 students, 0% FRL); Tolsia High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #101 of 110 statewide, top 94%, 367 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wayne County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.