2715 Big Sandy River Rd · Fort Gay, WV 25514

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 1976 10 ac lot Est $141k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0

Listing remarks

3 bed/2bath brick rancher sitting on nearly an acre lot! This home features privacy & convenience includes a whole house generator and a full basement that is partially finished with potential for added living space, storage and another bathroom. Country setting, but only minutes to Fort Gay and Louisa, KY.

Key facts

• Country setting
• Full basement
• Partially finished

Tags

• WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR
• FULL BASEMENT
• PARTIALLY FINISHED
• COUNTRY SETTING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; 1 story
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Built on a foundation (basement present)
• Exterior features: Porch; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Dryer; Microwave; Range/Oven; Refrigerator; Washer; Basement (full, partially finished, unfinished); Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($539/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#302 in WV) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wayne County Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #25 of 55 in WV (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fort Gay Pre K-8 (math 13% / reading 25%, grade F, #361 of 377 statewide, top 96%, 551 students, 0% FRL); Tolsia High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #101 of 110 statewide, top 94%, 367 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 46% district-wide (46 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 32% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wayne County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $127,546 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,120
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
183 Mimosa Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0	2,105 (+4%)	8mo	$100,000	$48	52
509 N Lock Ave Ave	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,300 (+14%)	7mo	$160,000	$70	40
325 North Clay St	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (-13%)	24mo	$140,000	$79	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $27,381
• Equity at exit: $77,595

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $86,985
• Equity at exit: $124,177

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25514

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,275 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $683/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $90	+0% $45	+5% $0	+10% $-46
Rent	-10% $-56	-5% $-5	+0% $45	+5% $95	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $126	-0.5pp $86	base $45	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-14
   listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WV · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $683 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $944 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$261/yr (+$22/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,306
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$683
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,224
• − Management: −$1,224
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,244
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $1,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5401500
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $36,283
• Composite: 26.08/100
• National rank: #7297
• State rank: #25 of 55 in WV

Livability — Fort Gay

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #302
• US rank: #24443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,841

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,267 people
• By 2030: 36,578 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 33,034 · -13.7%
• By 2050: 29,671 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 22,901 · -40.2%
• By 2100: 17,421 · -54.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.4) · D 22.4% · R 75.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.1pp toward R · 2008: -18.2pp · 2024: -53.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.4 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+18.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.62%
• Current HPI: 135.5736
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — HBRMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed $160,000 HBRMLS