5146 Pontiac Trl

Ann Arbor, MI 48105

$299,900D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Pending · 227 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$185
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $437/mo
• Annual: $5,244/yr
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $437 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (7.4% below list).
• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $264k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#10 in MI, #155 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Whitmore Lake Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #213 of 540 in MI (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whitmore Lake Elementary School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #744 of 1,397 statewide, top 57%, 371 students, 47% FRL); Whitmore Lake High School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #264 of 713 statewide, top 41%, 254 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 996 units permitted in Washtenaw County in 2024 (492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washtenaw County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 16 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.5% in Ann Arbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.