9 Keeler Ave

Moravia, NY 13118

$154,900A

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,179 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,577/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$947
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $276/mo
• Annual: $3,315/yr
• Cap rate: 12.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.38%
• DSCR: 1.91
• 1% rule: 1.66%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#357 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Moravia Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #391 of 590 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 161 units permitted in Cayuga County in 2024 (65 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cayuga County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 5.7% in Moravia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.