469 Holly Gln

Callender Lake, TX 75778

$215,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Active · 123 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,132
• Tax + insurance: −$360
• HOA: −$39
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-495/mo
• Annual: $-5,939/yr
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.82%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $60,452

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-495 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (39.3% below list).
• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,447 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 793 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.