469 Holly Gln · Callender Lake, TX 75778

$215,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily · 123 Days on market

Built 2024 9,583 sqft lot $103/sqft · 26% below area Est $292k · 26% under $39/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautiful newly built two-story home nestled in the peaceful Callender Lake community. Featuring 3bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed upstairs/downstairs layout offers both comfort and functionality. This home sits on a spacious . 22-acre lot providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment or future additions. This move inready new construction is perfect for homeowners ADDITIONAL PICTURES

Key facts

• New construction
• Spacious lot
• Outdoor enjoyment

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• CALLENDER LAKE COMMUNITY
• SPACIOUS LOT
• OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT
• NEW CONSTRUCTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-495 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (39.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (39.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,447 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Van H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 793 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 52% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,151 (39.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.82%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,151
• List price: $215,900
• Delta: -26.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
412 Terrapin Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	2,101 (0%)	24mo	$488,000	$232	74
239 Callender Lake Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,909 (-9%)	11mo	$400,000	$210	48
371 Callender Lake Dr	0.28mi	3/3.5	2,400 (+14%)	24mo	$544,000	$227	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $13,264
• Equity at exit: $117,008

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $69,962
• Equity at exit: $197,658

Cash invested: $60,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75778

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,132
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$270 /mo · $3,238/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $-495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $144,281

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-346	-5% $-420	+0% $-495	+5% $-570	+10% $-644
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-547	+0% $-495	+5% $-443	+10% $-391
Rate	-1.0pp $-386	-0.5pp $-440	base $-495	+0.5pp $-551	+1.0pp $-608

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,975
• Closing costs: $6,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,900 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $215,900 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-02-06
   listed $215,900 Active 429-char remark

   Show marketing remark (429 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful newly built two-story home nestled in the peaceful Callender Lake community. Featuring 3bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed upstairs/downstairs layout offers both comfort and functionality. This home sits on a spacious . 22-acre lot providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment or future additions. This move inready new construction is perfect for homeowners ADDITIONAL PICTURES

4. 2026-01-28
   listed $215,900 Active 411-char remark

   Show marketing remark (411 chars)

   Welcome to this beautiful newly built two-story home nestled in the peaceful Callender Lake community. Featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this thoughtfully designed upstairs/downstairs layout offers both comfort and functionality. This home sits on a spacious . 22-acre lot providing plenty of room for outdoor enjoyment or future additions. This move in ready new construction is perfect for homeowners

5. 2026-01-26
   listed $215,900 Active
6. 2026-01-12
   historical
7. 2025-08-27
   price $219,999
8. 2025-07-12
   listed $224,999 Active
9. 2024-11-29
   historical
10. 2024-09-15
    price $259,000
11. 2024-07-01
    price $269,910
12. 2024-05-29
    listed $299,900 Active
13. 2024-04-15
    price $275,000
14. 2024-04-15
    price $275,000
15. 2024-03-25
    listed $285,000 Active
16. 2024-03-14
    price $285,000
17. 2024-02-08
    listed $290,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,094
• − Property taxes: −$3,238
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,259
• − Management: −$1,259
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,281
• Taxable loss: −$9,940
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,386
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,308
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5120
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Callender Lake

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1447
• US rank: #24766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callender Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 216.4151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $215,900 HCBOR
• 2026-01-28 Listed $215,900 GTAR
• 2026-01-26 Listed $215,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $219,999 NTREIS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $224,999 NTREIS
• 2024-11-29 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-09-15 Price Changed $259,000 NTREIS
• 2024-07-01 Price Changed $269,910 NTREIS
• 2024-05-29 Listed $299,900 NTREIS
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $275,000 GTAR
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $275,000 HCBOR
• 2024-03-25 Listed $285,000 GTAR
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $285,000 HCBOR
• 2024-02-08 Listed $290,000 HCBOR