2231 Tanners Ridge Condos

Wintergreen, VA 22967

$129,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 615 sqft · Built 1980 · Condo · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $954/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$137
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-153/mo
• Annual: $-1,831/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.07%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-153 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (26.0% below list).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $95k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#517 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rockfish River Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 268 students, 79% FRL); Nelson Middle (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 78% FRL); Nelson County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 517 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.3% in Wintergreen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.