2231 Tanners Ridge Condos · Wintergreen, VA 22967

$129,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 615 sqft · Condo public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1980 $210/sqft · 10% below area Est $144k · 10% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A furnished one bedroom condo on ground level in Tanners Ridge Condo Complex, Walking distance to Wintergreen Spa, Golf, Tennis and close to advanced ski runs and also on ski shuttle to lower mountain at Mountain Inn. Upgraded LPV flooring in the main living and bedroom areas. New double Anderson sliding glass doors allow you to experience the outdoors from inside. It is one of the least expensive opportunities to have a wonderful weekend retreat or a rental property in a world class resort in the mountains of Virginia close to major cities on the east coast.

Key facts

• Ground level
• Community pool
• Built 1980

Tags

• GROUND LEVEL
• CLOSE TO ADVANCED SKI RUNS
• SKI SHUTTLE TO LOWER MOUNTAIN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is part of an association
• HOA & community: Community association with amenities including clubhouse, fitness center, pool, playground, tennis courts, trails, transportation service, and more; Association services include management, insurance, reserve fund, road maintenance, snow removal, and trash; Association provides beach rights, boat dock/boat ramp, guest suites, meeting/banquet room, picnic area, sauna, stable(s), library, and water access

Exterior

• Utilities: Community/Coop water; Community/Coop sewer; Cable available; Fiber optic available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Condominium; One story
• Construction: Block foundation; Block and stick-built construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Cul-de-sac lot; Landscaped; Mountainous topography; Association pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: One bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the main level; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $126k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $95k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $95k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.3% in Wintergreen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#517 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Nelson County Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #92 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rockfish River Elementary (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #794 of 1,108 statewide, top 74%, 268 students, 79% FRL); Nelson Middle (math 44% / reading 66%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 340 students, 78% FRL); Nelson County High (math 57% / reading 82%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 517 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 44% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nelson County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 30% of rent.

Recommended offer $95,444 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.89%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,055
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: -10.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $51,416
• Equity at exit: $116,213

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $166,540
• Equity at exit: $250,619

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22967

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $954 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$282
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$200
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,331

Max offer price $76,429

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $129,000 Active 565-char remark
17. 2016-05-14
    historical
18. 2016-04-08
    listed $59,900
19. 2016-03-24
    historical
20. 2014-01-06
    listed $68,750
21. 2011-12-31
    historical
22. 2011-07-08
    listed $85,000
23. 2011-05-01
    historical
24. 2010-05-28
    listed $99,900
25. 2009-11-01
    historical
26. 2009-01-09
    listed $112,000
27. 2008-08-01
    historical
28. 2007-08-01
    listed $137,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$585/yr (+$49/mo · 124.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$916
• − Management: −$916
• − HOA: −$3,384
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable loss: −$5,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,406
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,165/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nelson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102580
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $50,092
• Composite: 44.37/100
• National rank: #2818
• State rank: #92 of 131 in VA

Livability — Wintergreen

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #517
• US rank: #23380

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wintergreen, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,647

Population outlook (Nelson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,115 people
• By 2030: 13,563 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 12,384 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 11,481 · -18.7%
• By 2075: 10,103 · -28.4%
• By 2100: 8,788 · -37.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Nelson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.5) · D 45.8% · R 53.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.7pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -7.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.5 2020: R+5.2 2016: R+5.7 2012: D+2.8 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.35%
• Current HPI: 294.3077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $129,000 CAAR
• 2016-05-14 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2016-04-08 Listed $59,900 CAAR
• 2016-03-24 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2014-01-06 Listed $68,750 CAAR
• 2011-12-31 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2011-07-08 Listed $85,000 CAAR
• 2011-05-01 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2010-05-28 Listed $99,900 CAAR
• 2009-11-01 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2009-01-09 Listed $112,000 CAAR
• 2008-08-01 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2007-08-01 Listed $137,000 CAAR

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2019): $472 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.