615 S 3rd Ave

Warner, OK 74469

$104,990D+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 96 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $828/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-71/mo
• Annual: $-856/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $29,397

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-856/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $83k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Warner (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 270 in OK (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Warner Es (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #127 of 845 statewide, top 15%, 600 students, 0% FRL); Warner Hs (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #15 of 447 statewide, top 4%, 214 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 63% district-wide (63 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Muskogee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Muskogee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.