615 S 3rd Ave · Warner, OK 74469

$104,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

Built 2026 0.67 ac lot Est $125k · 16% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover this charming two-bedroom, one-bath home, a brand-new build situated on a generous 0.67-acre lot in the heart of Warner, Oklahoma. Designed with modern living in mind, this property features an open-concept layout, making it perfect for both relaxation and entertaining. Step inside to find beautiful luxury vinyl plank flooring that flows seamlessly throughout the living areas, offering both durability and style. The spacious kitchen comes equipped with a stove, making meal preparation a breeze. The large laundry room adds convenience and extra storage space, enhancing the functionality of this delightful home. With its blank canvas design, this home is a fantastic opportunity for b

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Spacious kitchen
• Large laundry room

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s); No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Slab foundation
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built by owner (year built source: owner)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Porch; Mature trees; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Range
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Laminate counters; High-speed internet available; Accessible doors
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-856/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $95k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $83k (21.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $83k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#365 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Warner (rural): math 40% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 270 in OK (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Warner Es (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #127 of 845 statewide, top 15%, 600 students, 0% FRL); Warner Hs (math 44% / reading 44%, grade F, #15 of 447 statewide, top 4%, 214 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 63% district-wide (63 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 58 units permitted in Muskogee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($726 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Muskogee County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $82,812 (21.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
619 S 3rd Ave Unit B	0.04mi	2/1.0	800 (0%)	6mo	$124,900	$156	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $2,553
• Equity at exit: $41,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.77×
• Total profit: $22,710
• Equity at exit: $59,366

Cash invested: $29,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74469

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $828 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$174
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $918

Max offer price $94,666

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-35	+0% $-71	+5% $-108	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-137	-5% $-104	+0% $-71	+5% $-39	+10% $-6
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-45	base $-71	+0.5pp $-99	+1.0pp $-126

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,248
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $104,990
3. 2026-02-25
   price $109,990
4. 2026-02-17
   price $119,990
5. 2026-01-21
   listed $124,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,881
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$795
• − Management: −$795
• − Depreciation: −$3,054
• Taxable loss: −$2,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$645
• After-tax cash flow: $-211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warner
• NCES district ID: 4031650
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $41,068
• Composite: 32.83/100
• National rank: #5619
• State rank: #24 of 270 in OK

Livability — Warner

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #19429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warner, OK
• Population (ZIP): 2,138

Population outlook (Muskogee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,842 people
• By 2030: 64,969 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 60,920 · -8.9%
• By 2050: 56,978 · -14.8%
• By 2075: 47,160 · -29.4%
• By 2100: 35,336 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Native American 24% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Muskogee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.4% · R 68.0% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.6pp toward R · 2008: -15.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+15.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Current HPI: 231.7085
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $104,990 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $109,990 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $119,990 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-01-21 Listed $124,990 MLS Technology, Inc.