12652 Beckie Jo's Rd

Santa Rosa, TX 78593

$149,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 201 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,351/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $67/mo
• Annual: $806/yr
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($806/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.3% below list).
• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#774 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Santa Rosa ISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #760 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elma E Barrera El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 402 students, 90% FRL); Jo Nelson Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,378 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 224 students, 86% FRL); Santa Rosa H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 289 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.