12652 Beckie Jo's Rd · Santa Rosa, TX 78593

$149,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 201 Days on market

Built 1980 8,810 sqft lot $161/sqft · 22% above area Est $122k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come view this 2 bedroom 1 bath in Santa Rosa, TX. This home sits on a corner lot, in a quiet area- perfect for enjoying the fenced in yard! Remodeled and updated with a fresh, new look. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Updated
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FENCED IN YARD
• REMODELED
• UPDATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($806/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#774 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Santa Rosa ISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #760 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Elma E Barrera El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 402 students, 90% FRL); Jo Nelson Middle (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,378 of 1,662 statewide, top 83%, 224 students, 86% FRL); Santa Rosa H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 289 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (5.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.93%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,763
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 22.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.83% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $45,775
• Equity at exit: $92,045

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $131,714
• Equity at exit: $165,537

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78593

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,879/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $109	+0% $67	+5% $25	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $14	+0% $67	+5% $121	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $105	base $67	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,000 Active 201 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 198 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 197 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 196 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 193 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 189 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 188 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 187 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 183 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 182 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 181 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 180 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 179 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $149,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Come view this 2 bedroom 1 bath in Santa Rosa, TX. This home sits on a corner lot, in a quiet area- perfect for enjoying the fenced in yard! Remodeled and updated with a fresh, new look. Schedule your showing today!

17. 2025-12-04
    status Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Come view this 2 bedroom 1 bath in Santa Rosa, TX. This home sits on a corner lot, in a quiet area- perfect for enjoying the fenced in yard! Remodeled and updated with a fresh, new look. Schedule your showing today!

18. 2025-12-03
    historical 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Come view this 2 bedroom 1 bath in Santa Rosa, TX. This home sits on a corner lot, in a quiet area- perfect for enjoying the fenced in yard! Remodeled and updated with a fresh, new look. Schedule your showing today!

19. 2025-12-02
    listed $159,000 Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Come view this 2 bedroom 1 bath in Santa Rosa, TX. This home sits on a corner lot, in a quiet area- perfect for enjoying the fenced in yard! Remodeled and updated with a fresh, new look. Schedule your showing today!

20. 2024-07-02
    soldstatus
21. 2024-05-16
    soldstatus
22. 2024-05-15
    soldstatus Closed 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Quiet, quaint, and quality! This cute little 2 bedroom1 bath home has been completely remodeled from ceiling to floor! Great care was put into this cozy little abode! From the granite counter tops in the kitchen and bath hosting a huge roll in shower, this house is solid & well insulated! Completely fenced yard with 2 covered areas for outside entertaining! Enjoy the spectacular view from the kitchen sink & entire back yard! Covered parking with a 3 car carport. Property also has a 220v RV outlet for visitors with a travel trailer! New Roof being installed April 2024 and New electrical box as well! CENTRAL A/C is being installed as well with a 3 year transferable warranty! All appliances convey, including the washer/dryer combo. This is a must see home!! Call us or your agent to view this lovely home!

23. 2024-05-06
    status Pending 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Quiet, quaint, and quality! This cute little 2 bedroom1 bath home has been completely remodeled from ceiling to floor! Great care was put into this cozy little abode! From the granite counter tops in the kitchen and bath hosting a huge roll in shower, this house is solid & well insulated! Completely fenced yard with 2 covered areas for outside entertaining! Enjoy the spectacular view from the kitchen sink & entire back yard! Covered parking with a 3 car carport. Property also has a 220v RV outlet for visitors with a travel trailer! New Roof being installed April 2024 and New electrical box as well! CENTRAL A/C is being installed as well with a 3 year transferable warranty! All appliances convey, including the washer/dryer combo. This is a must see home!! Call us or your agent to view this lovely home!

24. 2024-03-29
    listed $149,999 Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    Quiet, quaint, and quality! This cute little 2 bedroom1 bath home has been completely remodeled from ceiling to floor! Great care was put into this cozy little abode! From the granite counter tops in the kitchen and bath hosting a huge roll in shower, this house is solid & well insulated! Completely fenced yard with 2 covered areas for outside entertaining! Enjoy the spectacular view from the kitchen sink & entire back yard! Covered parking with a 3 car carport. Property also has a 220v RV outlet for visitors with a travel trailer! New Roof being installed April 2024 and New electrical box as well! CENTRAL A/C is being installed as well with a 3 year transferable warranty! All appliances convey, including the washer/dryer combo. This is a must see home!! Call us or your agent to view this lovely home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,879 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$847/yr (+$71/mo · 45.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,879
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$405
• After-tax cash flow: $1,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,649
• Composite: 18.63/100
• National rank: #8896
• State rank: #760 of 826 in TX

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #774
• US rank: #14097

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,030

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 4% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 95%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 45% English-only · Spanish 55%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.83%
• Current HPI: 210.4254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $149,000 RGVMLS
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-12-03 Delisted — RGVMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $159,000 RGVMLS
• 2024-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-05-15 Sold (MLS) — RGVMLS
• 2024-05-06 Pending — RGVMLS
• 2024-03-29 Listed $149,999 RGVMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,879 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.