530 E 159th St #47

New York, NY 10451

$149,000B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · Built 1950 · Townhouse · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$315
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$889
• Net cashflow: $2,249/mo
• Annual: $26,994/yr
• Cap rate: 24.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.61%
• DSCR: 3.96
• 1% rule: 2.84%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $149k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($27k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $149k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $994 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Zoned schools: Elm Tree Elementary School (math 27% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 806 students, 94% FRL); Jhs 383 Philippa Schuyler (math 32% / reading 67%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 822 students, 85% FRL); Midwood High School (math 94% / reading 96%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 4,062 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 79 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $149k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 24.9% vs local median 2.7% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,235/mo this rent would consume 131% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Kitchen cabinets — The cabinets are outdated and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major: Kitchen countertops — The countertops are outdated and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major: Kitchen appliances — The appliances are outdated and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major: Bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major: Flooring — The flooring is worn and in poor condition, requiring replacement or significant renovation.
• Major: Paint — The paint is peeling and in poor condition, requiring a fresh coat or significant renovation.